ON THE RUMOURED ABORTED COUP: ITS POSSIBILITY AND IMPOSSIBILITY IN NIGERIA. Written by KEMKA S. IBEJI

A few weeks ago Nigerians heard and read of an aborted military takeover in Nigeria. Without verification, the people were already venting their minds. For a few people, it was a good one and for others, it is a bad omen. Many began to imagine what will happen to the gained grounds over the years and how Nigeria will skid back into the military government with its hassles and more.

Many theories have been advanced while it's believed that it was totally a Northern officers affair which had no Southern officers' involvement. Many have also said that it is so because the economy bites them more dangerously than the rest of Nigeria especially as their trade had remained politics.

Others have argued that it has been the pattern of the North always trying to botch the tenure of every Southern president of Nigeria. For these folks, the North has become impatient as they thought that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would have died just like late President Umar Musa Yar'adua as he was visibly not very strong and energetic during the political activities prelude to the 2023 elections. So since it is becoming clearer to them that Chief Tinubu may have cheated death and may not be dying any time soon, they now want to change the system of taking him out of power through a military coup.

Whichever of these narratives that is fair and true, I may be really ignorant of but there is something I can tell all Nigerians and especially the North. This is also worthy of the attention of every political leader in Nigeria at the moment. Military takeover won't easily be effective through a coup d'etat anymore in Nigeria, irrespective of our experiences and expectations. I will try to make this point simple and short.

The Nigerian security systems that held Nigeria bonded are fast collapsing under the weight of ethnicism, tribalism, and sectionalism. All institutions of national unity have been raped to death by the political class and that has sustained their continued misgovernance of Nigeria. We had thought that the military was immune to this social cancer till a few years ago when the strength of immunity of our military caved in and crumbled subsequently.

Our military is now so divided that it will be impossible for them to have the type of unity, inclusiveness and patriotism that can enable a successful coup d'etat in Nigeria. This also may be a good thing or a blessing to the political office holders in Nigeria but it's not a total foreclosure. The military can also take over power in Nigeria if a few things happen.

Firstly, military takeover in Nigeria at the moment will require shared experiences, collective poise, union of minds across the country, and an understanding towards a goal. These form the requisite identity that can yield a successful coup d'etat anywhere in the world. They are all lacking at the moment in Nigeria.

But the government should be aware of a singular occurrence that can hand the reigns of political power over to the military in Nigeria of today. The Nigerian people are suffering at the moment and they're gradually agreeing to this shared experience though not totally. If this gets completeness across Nigeria and accepted by all, it will grant the grounds for the formation of a national consciousness and identity that will unite the people against their government. When this happens, there can or may be an uprising which will start in the form of demonstration or protest.

When protesters garner national acceptance and spread widely, the tension will usher in something. Guess what?

If any demonstration or protest gains national acceptance and spread any time in Nigeria such that it turns violent and sustained over a week, the military won't have any other option than to take over the government. So it's actually possible for a military takeover to happen in Nigeria in this renascent democracy but almost impossible to occur through a coup d'etat. So military takeover in Nigeria still remains a possibility irrespective of the serious division in all our systems and institutions but definitely an impossibility if it's expected to be a product of a military coup d'etat.

Nevertheless, the occurrence of a military takeover may not be particularly a problem but its sustenance. There is nothing in the present Nigerian state that can sustain any national political possibility, no matter how it goes or comes. Our country is so divided along dangerously segregating lines - tribalism, ethnicism, sectionalism and religion. These facts are clear enough to all critical minds that analyse Nigerian national realities per day. This is the negative that negates the negative and mathematical philosophy asserts that it is positive.

Be that as it may, it has become so paramount for the government of the day to begin to establish measures to weaken the forces of poverty, want, lack, sufferings and hunger in the land to deprive the Nigerian community of the tools of an identity towards political skirmishes and political shakes that can engander military takeover in Nigeria. In this vein, it is our view that whatever responsibility that is meted on the fated men and officers who engaged in such an alleged act, it won't allay the urge and gusto of recurrence. The only thing that will give peace of mind to all and sundry will everlastingly be good governance by the government. The rest is left for those who should know what to do. As they say, a word is enough for the wise.