THE ARCHITECTONICS OF THE COALITION AND THE SUFFICIENTLY NECESSARY DETERMINANT FACTORS FOR THE SELECTION OF ITS PRESIDENTIAL FLAGBEARER IN THE 2027 ELECTION. Written by KEMKA S. IBEJI

KEMKA S. IBEJI 

It's a daylight fact and an undemocratic truth to say that our country, Nigeria, is in political turmoil. The bright morning star has chosen to shine dark and the pieces of our eyes can only pick patches of blindness. Woe onto our land as it journeys fiercely and furiously on the precipice of a slippy slope. It sounds like all our pitiable shrills are piercing admixture of elegy and dirge for ourselves though we are still alive. This leaves an impression of hopelessness and utter dismay. Don't ask me if we can ever recover please. Please!

One Mr. Peter Obi sauntered towards the stage with all accoutrements of shimmering hope. That hope was fought as a war dangerously waged by a movement of the conscientious and intentional young population of Nigerians across colours and tongues. Knives, swords and sundry weapons were made available at all rungs of their climbing and entreaties from disguised enemies flowed and flowered but the determination of these young Nigerians was unimaginable. But it all started as silent whispers of four in a scanty room. It grew into a river of ideas and a sea of undying beliefs. 

This surged through 2022 into 2023 turning doubts and disbelief into rock solid faith that will thenceforth shape the fate of the political reality of Nigeria especially as we ride into yet another season of elections in 2027. But the obstacle that has stood so mountainous for all political pundits as well as practitioners has remained one being who many have said usurped the powers he wields and the throne he saddles; his name is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He's variously seen a political maestro, a leadership aggregator, a supernaturally gifted politician and the demigod of Lagos politics and the Southwest, by extension. But many of us see him very differently. This is especially those of us who saw him in Lagos in 1998 prelude to his entrance to Alausa in 1999. He's merely an opportunist and a man lacking in tact of governance but rich in the technical negatives of electoral victory. His knowledge of governance is a graduation of motor park administrator who has raised his game into taxation and extortionist expertise where people praise internally generated revenue (IGR) while being senselessly insensitive to nonaccountability. He has mastered this art and resigned supreme with it that he's now wearing a halo of the indisputable. This is basically so as nobody has ever been interested in dishing out his meal to himself. This man is best described in his best image and accurate picture as a paper tiger. This declaration will be discovered by all Nigerians in 2027 when his style of manoeuvring would have been exposed to a few more persons as the days come by. I won't tell the reading public that he's pragmatically a sectionalist or tribalist without the slightest character of a nationalist, in the sense of exposure and being knowledgeable to, intersubjectively, all cultures, traditions, nooks and crannies of Nigeria. This fellow is so limited but because he resided in and ruled Lagos which was a melting point for all nationalities, he pretended and was able to deceive so many into believing him as a detribalised and multicultural Nigerian. Nay! Enough of him.

As the night gives way to daylight, it usually graciously gathers tinctures of light from apertures, to rays and thereafter the charm of the day when even the weakest of retinas gallivant with the power of sights. This is how coalitions brew and coalitionists are formed into existence. This happened in the years building into 2015 and the bang reduced the almighty PDP into rubble that hastily grown political infants like Nyesom Wike can now bestride as monarchs without a kingdom. That's how powerful political coalitions can be. It's so daunting and prides ferocious buoyancy that it could bring consistent political failures like Muhammadu Buhari and national political spectators like Bola Ahmed Tinubu into the central government. Imagine such force that braces the capacity to violently dismantle the clamped fists of the PDP, reduced it to a feable teddy bear only good enough for children's peekaboo. What a wonder working coalition!

The psychosomatic truism ignites the law of excluded middle while expounding the law of motion by asserting actions being accosted by equal reactions, respectively. This in effect is to state that only the door through which the giant thief advents is most worthy of his exodus. And in the parlance of commonsense, those who live by the sword, die by the sword. This implies that the APC which came into power through coalition can only be ferried out of power through coalition as well. This theory is set for tests but how?

The vision of coalition began to emerge and the build up was a longing of many. However, just like soup, many more ingredients are required. Political actors are the ingredients, nevertheless. So numbers began to be aggregated but most significant amongst them were Mr. Peter Obi who has the followership of the largest population of Nigerians, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who has led an aged political structure, raking in a section of the PDP that needs shelter, Malam Nasir El-Rufai who is the fave of the other aspect of the North as well as the dissatisfied APC, and Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi who is endowed but thirsts for political survival. These four characters define the four cardinal points of the coalition which coalesced into the ADC. 

Coalescing into a conglomerate is never the major issue, it is apportionment of due responsibilities and their acceptance, as such, that matters. That alone defines the success of the coalition. This is where the coalition is at the moment. This is where interests, ego, selfishness and desperation deal their deadliest blows. So the coalition is at the point of make or mar in its lifetime. The question is; what is the best path to follow?

To properly underscore this question and to clarify well, an analysis of the goal of the coalition and its constitution becomes germane. The goal of the coalition is essentially to win political power over from the APC so as to use it to better the lives of Nigerians that were described in the introductory spaces of this writing as speedily hurrying down the cliff. The dream of the coalition is to salvage the situation of the country and return it to a stage for development and growth. It is for this reason that all hands must be on deck. So everyone must come with the mind to donate their skills, tact, talents and support to this objective. To do this, specific individuals have gathered with variegated skills and if the skills are wrongly employed, they will yield negative results. 

From the foregoing, the essential features to consider are the four major political actors. Their areas of power must be adequately engaged to extricate the required outcome. So what are their respective areas of strength?

Malam Nasir El-Rufai does not have interest in any elective position at the moment but wants his team to win. This makes him very important in ensuring that the best foot is put forward. He has a good population from the North and has reasonable influence within the Islamic societies in Nigeria. He comes with this value.

Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi comes from Southsouth, and is seen as part of the old system that needs to be dismantled, faces challenges of acceptability from the masses and is burdened by the weights of Wike in his geopolitical zone. He however has the resources and skills powerful enough to lift the coalition from his angle. This is a priceless value. Though he needs some revival into political relevance as his influence is dying, not slowly. Just like El-Rufai, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi's absence on the ballot won't be felt.

The game of who becomes the standard bearer of the coalition is left between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Peter Obi. But an interesting thing is lurking.

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar had been a Vice President of Nigeria and had a big smear from his boss - President Olusegun Obasanjo. Also, the power rotation or zoning is presently against the ambition of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as it's still the turn of the South to complete its own 8 years. But most significantly is the contribution of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the number of people in his support base and their character. If he chooses not to contest for the position of the presidential candidate of the coalition, his support base won't diminish but will work for the success of the group. This is a particularly important area in the choice of who becomes the standard bearer of the ADC for the 2027 Presidential Election. Just like Malam Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, if Alhaji Atiku Abubakar does not contest in the primaries, it will not effect the outcome of the election as his supporters, his influence and his contributions will remain unaltered.

On the side of the last man standing, Mr. Peter Obi, he has the highest number of followers, controls a movement of young and energetic Nigerians highly needed for the 2027 election. This alone makes him the bride of the coalition. Pertinently, he controls his support base by pandering to their whims and caprices. The character of his followers are known and it's akin to the tyranny of the majority which clearly captures the nature of democracy. The most important factor about having Peter Obi's supporters in the coalition is that Mr. Peter Obi is the presidential candidate of the coalition. Anything less than this crumbles the coalition in a few seconds from the angle of Peter Obi's supporters. 

In concluding analysis therefore, the uniting force of the coalition resides in Mr. Peter Obi. This is not arrogantly given but most peacefully true. This implies that if the coalition must stand, thrive and be efficient, Mr Peter Obi should and has to be made the presidential candidate of the coalition. This is painstakingly assessed and arrived at after thorough investigations and considerations and it is therefore the best bet for the coalition if it must achieve its dream of ousting the Bola Ahmed Tinubu's led APC government in 2027.

God bless Nigeria!