THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THOUGHTS. Written by KEMKA S. IBEJI

The Presidential Election is far from being over yet. Since February 25th, 2023 Nigerians have begun a new journey to nationhood and their destination is so clear and known to them. They want a new Nigeria and they believe it is possible.

From the moonless Yakubu midnight when the INEC Nigeria announced their fictitious election result and declared Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner of the election, it has been an uneasy calmness across Nigeria.

There is palpable air of uncertainty hovering across Nigeria. There would have been an unimaginable height of hopelessness and helplessness except that hope is simmering from the seat of Mr. Peter Obi and the Labour Party (LP) in the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT).

Nigerians have argued that there is no need to trust the judiciary knowing that they live in a different firmament where justice cannot survive. The leader of the #OBIdient Movement, Mr. Peter Obi has however admonished the citizens to remain calm till their stolen mandate is recovered. In his statement, Nigerians won the election through him and he will prove it.

All legal teams have canvassed their positions and all final addresses admitted and adopted by parties. Now it is left for the courts to deliver her judgement. Rumours have gone round on many issues as indicated that Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC are bent on compromising the judiciary as that is the only avenue left for them. First here was the wide bang on the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Ariwoola who was suspected to have had some secret meetings with Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu in a foreign country. Again, some news are flying about with the former governor of Lagos State, Mr. Fashola, at the center of the news. It has been widely stated that Fashola is already writing the judgment of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT).

In the midst of all these, the legal team of Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC and INEC had threatened the court that any other judgement that does not favour them will lead to chaos and anarchy. This threat was not taken lightly by Nigerians and they pushed the idea back to it.

In something that looks like face-mending but further offended the Nigerian citizenry, Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu's legal team had said there should be a run-off between their client (Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and not Mr. Peter Obi. This clearly advertised where their fears are. It also casts rays of suspicion on the victory of Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the 3rd position which was apportioned to Mr. Peter Obi.

Obviously, by the prayers of Tinubu's team shows their lack of the knowledge of the difference between rerun and run-off. While run-off fields the highest voted candidate and the 1st runner-up, a rerun will field all candidates in the last election except anyone who has been disqualified by the courts in the process.

The foregoing bears the most important part of the entire season which is the issue of run-off or rerun. The country and especially the courts will be in trouble if they declare a run-off. This is because their judgement will return to the court for another round of interpretation. Such interpretation will bother on identifying who scored the highest number of votes cast, who has the highest spread and who is the first runner up in the election. Considering the blurred results, identifying who scored the highest number of votes cast will be difficult for the court. Again, to pick out the 2nd person with the highest spread will be another difficult challenge for the courts knowing that Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu won in 12 states, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar also won in 12 states and Mr. Peter Obi won in 11 states and the FCT. So there will be a stalemate between Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as both have sameness in spread. Again, there will be an argument that Mr. Peter Obi actually had the spread having gone beyond the states and also went to the next yardstick which is victory in the FCT while denying the duo of Tinubu and Atiku the requisite 25%.

In the above, it will be hard for the court to wriggle out of the confusion that will greet their judgment for a run-off.

Nevertheless, it seems that the only way out for the court, if Mr. Peter Obi is not declared winner of the election, is for them to declare a return hold fast on the proviso of substantial noncompliance to the electoral act by the INEC. This will enable the court to avoid further interpretations.

Another saving grace for the court to run away from further visitations for interpretations of their judgement is to disqualify Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu as canvassed by several other parties to the matter. This disqualification can rely on his narcotics case which led to his being with the forfeiture of $460,000. Or Tinubu can be disqualified regarding the double nomination of his Vice Presidential Candidate, Mallam Kashim Shettima. And lastly, Tinubu's disqualification can rely on his certificate issues. If any of these holds Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu down for disqualification, then a run-off can go ahead without much revisit to the courts for further interpretations.

While it is believed by all election observers and all Nigerians that Mr. Peter Obi won the 2023 Presidential Election, it is expected that the worst judgements that can come from the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT) are either a run-off or a rerun. Be that as it may, the high point holds that a run-off will plunge the country into a more dangerous situation where further inquisitions will be made for an appreciable understanding of the judgment.

In the last analysis, Nigerians expect an end to the election by the courts declaring Mr. Peter Obi as the winner of the 2023 Presidential Election. This, according to majority of Nigerians, is the justice hoped for from the courts. In the mind of the largest number of Nigerian citizens, they believe that if politics takes a higher ground over justice, it is hoped that either a rerun of the election or a run-off without Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the ballot will be most appropriate.